Friday, November 2, 2007

The 10 Keys to Successful Stock Options Trading - Key #7

The 10 Keys to Successful Stock Options Trading - Key #7
Again welcome back to my series on how to trade stock
options successfully. Key number seven is always trade with
the trend. Let's discuss what that means.

As my first mentor, Dr. Stephen Cooper, says "The trend is
your friend". Generally speaking, if the market is trending
up then trade calls, if it is trending down then trade
puts. It really is that simple, why buck the trend?

The general market direction is determined by what the
institutional investors are doing. Institutional investors
are large corporations such as investment banks, mutual
funds and insurance companies. They have billions of
dollars to invest and they move the market. Small private
investors such as us have very little effect on the
direction of the market or a particular stock. If the
institutional and professional investors are putting
millions into the market and certain stocks, follow them.
They may not necessarily know what they are doing but they
do make the market so if the Dow Jones Industrial Average
is down 200 points as a rule don't buy calls, conversely if
it is up 200 points, again as a rule, don't buy puts.

Of course these are general rules and there are always
exceptions. A particular sector or stock may be performing
exceptionally well and just because the overall market is
going down you may still have good fundamental and
technical reasons to be buying calls in that particular
sector or stock. Always double check the news sources I
mentioned in Key #2, check the fundamentals explained in
Key #3 and check the technical reasons for entering a trade
covered in Key #4, if all of these factors combined
determine a good trade then by all means take into account
the overall direction of the market but do not let it stop
you making the trade.

When trading it is imperative that you don't just take any
one factor into account when deciding to place a trade,
always ensure there are at least two good reasons for
entering the trade and make sure there are no reasons not
to trade. Remember overtrading is a common mistake if there
is not a good reason to trade then just wait until another
day, the market is constantly providing good opportunities
to make money, have patience and wait for the right one.
And remember, the trend is your friend!

Until next week, happy trading.

US Government required disclaimer: Options involve risk and
are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or
selling an option, a person must receive a copy of the
Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies
of this document may be obtained from your broker, from any
exchange on which options are traded or by contacting The
Options Clearing Corporation, One North Wacker Dr., Suite
500 Chicago, IL 60606 (1-800-678-4667).


----------------------------------------------------
Roger Cox was born in New Zealand and has lived in Los
Angeles for seven years. He was President of a freight
company at LAX before setting up his own consulting firm.
Roger has successfully traded stock options for over 4
years and teaches other people how to successfully trade at
http://www.prosperitywithoptions.com

Forex System Trading

Forex System Trading
You may decide to develop your own trading system or you
may prefer to purchase one that has already been developed
for use and has a proven track record.

In this article we will look at the basics of developing
your own trading system.

In essence a trading system is any set of rules that must
be conformed to when trading, so you could for example
detail the following rules.

If a 5 period exponential moving average (EMA) crosses up
over a 13 period exponential moving average(EMA), enter a
long trade.

If a 5 period exponential moving average (EMA) crosses down
over a 13 period exponential moving average (EMA), enter a
short trade.

You have now created the basis of your trading system.

Of course this would not be nearly enough to produce a
successful trading system, so now you need to enter some
safeguards.

If the 5 period EMA crosses up over the 13 period EMA
enter a long trade and immediately place a stop loss order
at 50 pips below the entry value.

If the 5 period EMA crosses down over the 13 period EMA
enter a short trade and immediately place a stop loss
order at 50 pips above the entry value.

So far you have only one criterea for trade entry and this
could lead to many false signals. To help prevent this you
might well add one or more technical indicators as a
filter, but keep in mind that the more filters, the less
trades will be signalled and although this can be a good
thing, it is important to maintain a balance.

Continuing with the system building process, you might
choose to add MACD as a filter.

If the 5 period EMA crosses up over the 13 period EMA AND
MACD is rising above the signal line, enter a long trade
and immediately place a stop loss order at 50 pips below
the entry value.

If the 5 period EMA crosses down over the 13 period EMA AND
MACD is falling below the signal line, enter a short trade
and immediately place a stop loss order at 50 pips above
the entry value.

It will be necessary to back test your trading system with
various time frames to establish the optimum time frame(s)
for the system.

Back testing can be carried out by using a backtesting
program or by visually looking back at the charts and
identifying the points at which "your trading system"
conformed to the trade entry rules. Then look forward to
see if the trade would have been successful.

Make sure that you make precise notes regarding each
theoretical trade.

Next you will need to develop a rule or set of rules for
exiting the trade. There are many ways to do this.

Developing a reliable exit method is in many ways more
important than developing a reliable trade entry system.

One popular method is to use a trailing stop and to
continue to trail price until the trade is eventually
"stopped out" in profit.

A trading system, no matter how good, will not produce a
winning trade for every trade entry.

Your goal is to establish a system that is successful more
than 50% of the time. The higher the percentage the better
the system will be.

If your system checks out favourably during back testing
you should proceed to trade it in REAL-TIME but using a
DEMO ACCOUNT only.

It is most important at this stage not to put any real
money at risk, because back testing is not reliable enough
to prove a trading system's worth.

If after a month or two of REAL-TIME testing the system
shows a consistent winning average of above 50% then you
can consider making further adjustments to improve the
average.

Each time that you make an adjustment, it is most important
to go through the whole testing process again from the
begining, to ensure that the adjustment has made a
favourable difference.

There is no reliable short cut to this process.

Make sure to only make changes one at a time and carry out
the whole testing process for each change. If you make more
than one change at a time, you will never be certain which
of the changes were beneficial and which were not.

Finally, after all of your testing has been carried out and
you are ready to fund a live account, it is essential to
apply a system of money management.

This needs to be a rigid set of rules that might for
example include - Never trade using more than 2-3% of your
trading account on any one trade - and so on.

Good luck and happy trading.


----------------------------------------------------
Martin Bottomley is a full time professional forex trader,
forex tutor, acknowledged author and co-developer of forex
trading software including The Amazing Stealth Forex
Trading system. You will find more information at:
http://www.stealthforex.com

Credit Score

Credit Score
What is credit scoring? Credit scoring is a system
creditors use to help determine whether to give you credit.
It also may be used to help decide the terms you are
offered or the rate you will pay for the loan. Information
about you and your credit experiences, like your
bill-paying history, the number and type of accounts you
have, whether you pay your bills by the date they’re
due, collection actions, outstanding debt, and the age of
your accounts, is collected from your credit report. Using
a statistical program, creditors compare this information
to the loan repayment history of consumers with similar
profiles. For example, a credit scoring system awards
points for each factor that helps predict who is most
likely to repay a debt. A total number of points — a
credit score — helps predict how creditworthy you are
— how likely it is that you will repay a loan and
make the payments when they’re due.

Some insurance companies also use credit report
information, along with other factors, to help predict your
likelihood of filing an insurance claim and the amount of
the claim. They may consider these factors when they decide
whether to grant you insurance and the amount of the
premium they charge. The credit scores insurance companies
use sometimes are called “insurance scores” or
“credit-based insurance scores.” Credit scores
and credit reports

Your credit report is a key part of many credit scoring
systems. That’s why it is critical to make sure your
credit report is accurate. Federal law gives you the right
to get a free copy of your credit reports from each of the
three national consumer reporting companies once every 12
months. The Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA) also gives you
the right to get your credit score from the national
consumer reporting companies. They are allowed to charge a
reasonable fee, generally around $15, for the scores. When
you buy your scores, often you get information on how you
can improve it. How is a credit scoring system developed?

To develop a credit scoring system or model, a creditor or
insurance company selects a random sample of its customers,
or a sample of similar customers, and analyzes it
statistically to identify characteristics that relate to
risk. Each of the characteristics then is assigned a weight
based on how strong a predictor it is of who would be a
good risk. Each company may use its own scoring model,
different scoring models for different types of credit or
insurance, or a generic model developed by a scoring
company. Under the Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA), a
creditor’s scoring system may not use certain
characteristics — for example, race, sex, marital
status, national origin, or religion — as factors.
The law allows creditors to use age in properly designed
scoring systems. But any credit scoring system that
includes age must give equal treatment to elderly
applicants.

What can I do to improve my score? Credit scoring systems
are complex and vary among creditors or insurance companies
and for different types of credit or insurance. If one
factor changes, your score may change — but
improvement generally depends on how that factor relates to
others the system considers. Only the business using the
scoring knows what might improve your score under the
particular model they use to evaluate your application.
Nevertheless, scoring models usually consider the following
types of information in your credit report to help compute
your credit score: Have you paid your bills on time? You
can count on payment history to be a significant factor. If
your credit report indicates that you have paid bills late,
had an account referred to collections, or declared
bankruptcy, it is likely to affect your score negatively.
Are you maxed out? Many scoring systems evaluate the amount
of debt you have compared to your credit limits. If the
amount you owe is close to your credit limit, it’s
likely to have a negative effect on your score.

How long have you had credit? Generally, scoring systems
consider the length of your credit track record. An
insufficient credit history may affect your score
negatively, but factors like timely payments and low
balances can offset that. Have you applied for new credit
lately? Many scoring systems consider whether you have
applied for credit recently by looking at
“inquiries” on your credit report. If you have
applied for too many new accounts recently, it could have a
negative effect on your score. Every inquiry isn’t
counted: for example, inquiries by creditors who are
monitoring your account or looking at credit reports to
make “prescreened” credit offers are not
considered liabilities. How many credit accounts do you
have and what kinds of accounts are they? Although it is
generally considered a plus to have established credit
accounts, too many credit card accounts may have a negative
effect on your score. In addition, many scoring systems
consider the type of credit accounts you have. For example,
under some scoring models, loans from finance companies may
have a negative effect on your credit score. Scoring models
may be based on more than the information in your credit
report. When you are applying for a mortgage loan, for
example, the system may consider the amount of your down
payment, your total debt, and your income, among other
things. Improving your score significantly is likely to
take some time, but it can be done. To improve your credit
score under most systems, focus on paying your bills in a
timely way, paying down any outstanding balances, and
staying away from new debt.

Are credit scoring systems reliable? Credit scoring systems
enable creditors or insurance companies to evaluate
millions of applicants consistently on many different
characteristics. To be statistically valid, these systems
must be based on a big enough sample. They generally vary
among businesses that use them. Properly designed, credit
scoring systems generally enable faster, more accurate, and
more impartial decisions than individual people can make.
And some creditors design their systems so that some
applicants — those with scores not high enough to
pass easily or low enough to fail absolutely — are
referred to a credit manager who decides whether the
company or lender will extend credit. Referrals can result
in discussion and negotiation between the credit manager
and the would-be borrower.

What if I am denied credit or insurance, or don’t get
the terms I want? If you are denied credit, the ECOA
requires that the creditor give you a notice with the
specific reasons your application was rejected or the news
that you have the right to learn the reasons if you ask
within 60 days. Ask the creditor to be specific: Indefinite
and vague reasons for denial are illegal. Acceptable
reasons might be “your income was low” or
“you haven’t been employed long enough.”
Unacceptable reasons include “you didn’t meet
our minimum standards” or “you didn’t
receive enough points on our credit scoring system.”
Sometimes you can be denied credit or insurance — or
initially be charged a higher premium — because of
information in your credit report. In that case, the FCRA
requires the creditor or insurance company to give you the
name, address, and phone number of the consumer reporting
company that supplied the information. Contact the company
to find out what your report said. This information is free
if you ask for it within 60 days of being turned down for
credit or insurance. The consumer reporting company can
tell you what’s in your report; only the creditor or
insurance company can tell you why your application was
denied. If a creditor or insurance company says you were
denied credit or insurance because you are too near your
credit limits on your credit cards, you may want to reapply
after paying down your balances. Because credit scores are
based on credit report information, a score often changes
when the information in the credit report changes.

If you’ve been denied credit or insurance or
didn’t get the rate or terms you want, ask questions:
Ask the creditor or insurance company if a credit scoring
system was used. If it was, ask what characteristics or
factors were used in the system, and how you can improve
your application. If you get the credit or insurance, ask
the creditor or insurance company whether you are getting
the best rate and terms available. If you’re not, ask
why. If you are denied credit or not offered the best rate
available because of inaccuracies in your credit report, be
sure to dispute the inaccurate information with the
consumer reporting company.


----------------------------------------------------
http://www.my720fico.com is the nations leading resource
for credit reports and credit scores.Learn what most don't
know.

Things You Must Know About Mortgage Refinancing

Things You Must Know About Mortgage Refinancing
If you are looking for a way to reduce your monthly
payments, gaining extra time for the repayment of loans and
willing to lock in a better interest rate, then go for
mortgage refinancing. This is by far the best way to
achieve the aforementioned benefits. However, take care not
to enter into it lightly. You must also understand that
mortgage refinancing for the wrong reason and/or at the
wrong time, might actually land you in trouble with having
to pay more and obtaining a lower interest rate.

Be clear about refinancing,

Refinancing is the process of achieving a second loan for
paying off the original loan; this leaves you with the new
interest rates and the new payment schedule. Refinancing
usually decreases your monthly payment, owing to the new
loan extracted on a smaller amount than your original
mortgage loan.

Moreover, refinancing provides you more time to pay off
your mortgage, which benefits you when you are soon
approaching a huge payment that you cannot really afford or
would like to extend your loan.

The best time for refinancing,

How can you denote the ideal time for refinancing? Well,
mortgage refinancing is best timed after a considerable
part of the mortgage has been repaid and a sufficient
equity has been built. The equity is most likely for
securing the refinance loan; therefore, it is crucial to
have enough for covering the amount of the loan.

Application for a refinance loan must be made when the
interest rates are lower than when you had taken out the
mortgage. This enables the lower interest rate to be an
additional bonus to refinancing.

Your receiving a lower monthly payment will depend greatly
on the terms that you agree for the refinance loan as well
as the amount, which is left on the original mortgage.

Other ways to denote the right time for refinancing,

Start reading the finance journals and watch the news
carefully; this helps you determine what the national
interest rates are set at. Also, try to foresee whether the
national interest rates are likely to decrease or increase
in the near future.

The loan market will enable you to find lenders providing
special rates or promotions for a limited amount of time.
Take your time to examine the offers and ensure that they
are legal; also it is advisable to consider if the offer
will suit your requirements, than waiting for the rates to
change.

Knowing the way to go about refinancing,

For mortgage refinancing, primarily you will need a lender
who will issue you the refinancing loan. The loan
application in this case is almost like the majority of the
other applications; with the exception being that the
subject of the loan is the original mortgage balance and
that the collateral is the equity you have in the house or
any other real estate where the mortgage was taken out to
purchase.

Usually the lender or the bank, through which you take out
the refinance loan, is involved in handling all the
payments and transfers of the mortgage. In some cases,
however, you have to handle these works yourself; this
depends completely on the specific lender that you use


----------------------------------------------------
Debbie Groves is the owner of Mortgage Refinancing People,
mortgage refinancing
which is a premier resource for mortgage refinancing
information.
For more information, go to:
http://www.mortgagerefinancingpeople.com

Investing in Commercial Property.

Investing in Commercial Property.
Investing in commercial property is a great way to invest
your money. There are many alternatives to investing in
commercial property which makes it good for every type of
investor to get involved.

So what are the options available for those interested in
commercial property?

Some of the options you may already know exist, lets look
at some,

Listed property trust is the simplest way to invest in
commercial property, all you have to do is open an account
with a stockbroker, deposit some money and then place an
order. Listed property trust can be found on the stock
-market, they invest in a wide range of commercial property
i.e main office buildings, shopping centres, as well as
industrial and leisure properties.

The trust manager chooses properties and is responsible for
the maintenance, renovation, and for collecting rentals.

Property securities are managed funds which invest in a
list of property trusts. This option is very good for
somebody who is unsure which trust is appropriate. Purchase
is through a prospectus.

Another simple way to invest is public property syndicates
, with application via a prospectus. The downfall is they
require a large minimum outlay and you are locked into the
investment for the duration of syndicate unless you can
find someone to buy the investment from you.

If you have research the market and have some acquired
knowledge then direct property investment could be for you.
You can also buy direct property through a private property
syndicate.

Mortgage funds are managed funds that lend money over
property. The investor will be offered security and returns
that are a little higher than a bank term deposit but there
are no capital gains.

Commercial property is thought of as office, retail and
industrial but as an investor you need to be aware of the
many options available to you. Health care, child care and
retirement properties are great examples, also parking lots
, storage facilities.

An article read "Americans regard self storage as an
absolute blue chip investment and is considered the safest
real estate based investment in the United States"

So when is the right time to invest in commercial property?

If you are a participant in the share market you would be
aware of the "investment clock", which its purpose is to
show how the economic cycle works.

An overheating economy is followed by higher interest rates
and falling share prices, when the economy declines so does
interest rates and shares begin to raise again.

Here is a guide to the way commercial property could fit
with the economy;

The economy starts to slow. Direct properties stop raising
and may even decline. The authorities inject liquidity into
the economy. The stock market and listed property trusts
rise. The economy begins to rise. Direct property begins to
rise Inflation may also rise and interest rates rise The
stock market and listed property trusts fall.

American research has identified four phases based on
economic and supply and demand.

Phase One is when the market is generally in a condition of
oversupply, due to a weak economy and too much construction
from when the economy was strong. This is the bottom of the
cycle.Vacancy rates will be high and rents would be
falling. During this period new construction will cease,
while demand slowly starts to grow again.

During phase two new spaces will continue to grow, there
will be very little construction and rents rise sometimes
sharply. This will cause developers once again initiating
the construction of new buildings until there is an
equilibrium between supply and demand.

In phase three demand continues to grow and supply grows
faster. Rental growth could slow down.

The final phase brings the market to a point of oversupply,
due to over - building, with the condition aggravated by
the economy weakening.


----------------------------------------------------
http://www.sn-investing.com
We have websites designed for real estate investors ,
motivated sellers and private lenders
We buy motivated seller homes and flip the homes to our
real estate investor list.
We also have informative articles to all three websites and
products to help wealth building ,tax etc.