My brother-in-law has a system. He says it works on a
regular basis, and it must do, because every time he comes
to visit us, he goes into the local casino and comes out
with some small amount of winnings. 'Small'? Yes, that's
part of his system. "Most people are just too greedy," he
says. "They imagine they'll win millions and end up losing
everything they have." If you're not greedy, he says, you
can count on winning small amounts regularly. That helps to
pay the rent, it might even buy you a bottle of champagne,
so isn't that worth having? Well, no, not for most people.
They buy Lottery tickets in order to win the million pound
prize. If they got a letter saying they'd won three hundred
thousand, they'd probably be disappointed. That's part of
the problem of gambling: it inspires a level of complete
unreality. But that's the point, isn't it? The casinos in
Las Vegas provide an adventure in a fantasy world. They'd
don't sell 'reality'. If they did, people wouldn't part
with their money so easily. In fact, they'd win more often.
Like my brother-in-law.
The second part of the system kicks in when he sits down.
He plays Blackjack, starts slowly and relaxed, and looks
round the table to see who else is in the game. He spots
the losers, the high-rollers, the emotional types, and
distances himself from all of them. Because that's another
way to lose. If you get influenced by the other players,
you can't watch your own game. Of course, in the real
world, it happens all the time. Why else did thousands of
people invest in 'dot com' companies in the '90s? They were
copying other people. Why else have so many people in
Britain invested in housing and renting homes, even though
the market has peaked and is now slipping down? They've
listened to other people, they've followed what everyone
else is doing. You want to win at gambling? Look at your
own hand first and consider the odds you're facing. Then
compare yourself to everyone else later, after you've got
some idea what your chances are.
The next consideration is luck. Successful gamblers know
it's all about luck, but they work with it, play along with
it, coax it and cajole it. They never, ever work against
it. My brother-in-law says that Blackjack is a game where
the cards seem to go in runs. For a while they might be
with you and then they'll turn against you. At that point
you need to back off and wait for the good run to come
round again. It always does, he says. So he plays with his
luck, not against it. He's placing small bets and if the
cards seem to be going his way, he'll slowly increase his
bets, planning on building up winnings. If the hands are
going against him, he'll slow down, minimise the bets and
conserve his stake. Why would that work for him? Because
most people do the opposite, he says. If they see they're
losing, they'll panic and increase their bets enormously,
trying to win back all the chips they've lost. That's
crazy, he says. If the run is not going your way, you need
to calm down and minimise, not maximise bets. Above all,
don't panic and wait for your luck to turn, as it always
does. If you bet high while the cards are running against
you, then all you'll do is lose bigger. That's his
philosophy and it seems to work.
That might be for two reasons. One is that 'runs' do exist.
Try it. If you flip a coin and record the results you won't
get a list that says 'head, tails, head, tails'. Sure, it's
random and there's an even chance that it will come up
heads or tails each time. But it won't alternate. Instead,
you'll get a list that says 'heads, heads, heads, tails,
tails, heads' and in that sequence you'll see runs going
one way or the other. In fact, this is a complex point, and
fools a lot of people. When the first computer programmers
tried to build a Random Number Generator a few years ago
they were disappointed at their first results. They kept
getting runs. To the untutored eye, it didn't look 'random'
enough! But it was. Randomness produces runs. You just have
to be conservative enough to see it.
That's the main point. My brother-in-law is cautious. It's
the way he plays and the way he wins. Because he's aware of
the dangers of following other players; because he's only
aiming to win limited amounts; because he knows the cards
could turn against him and produce a losing streak; he's
always reserved and waiting. He never makes snap judgements
and takes absurd risks. In the end, he walks out of the
casino with money in his pocket not because he's a great
winner, but because most of the other players are big-time
losers. They follow other players; they risk high bets; and
they compound a losing streak by betting amounts they can't
afford. In the end, that's why he wins. All he has to do is
keep his cool and win some money, standing by while
everyone else loses theirs. He watches the cards, places
small bets and increases only when he's feeling safe. But
that's okay. The system works and will continue to work.
Because? We know that out of all the people reading this
article, most have never set foot in a gambling house, so
they're not rivals. Of those who do, most don't go
regularly and have never thought about applying a system.
Of those who have a system, most are still prone to
emotional and panicky responses. That leaves, well, how
many? Not many. At the end of the day my brother-in-law is
a regular winner, but then, how many real competitors has
he got?
----------------------------------------------------
Mike Scantlebury is an Internet Author and no gambler. He
takes no risks with his many websites, hosting books,
stories and articles. He lives in Manchester, England, but
communicates to the world through the internet. Try his
pithy comments and animated thoughts. Enjoy and learn.
http://www.mikescantlebury.com
