Last year, Apple (AAPL) upended the smart phone industry
with the release of the iPhone. This year, some analysts
wonder if the upcoming release of the Google (GOOG) Android
operating system could shake up the industry as well.
No, according to a new ChangeWave survey of 3,597
consumers, which finds the battle for smart phone supremacy
has transformed into a two-horse race between
Research-in-Motion's (RIMM) BlackBerry and the Apple iPhone.
RIM dominates current smart phone sales among consumers,
but the Apple iPhone shows tremendous momentum going
forward. At the same time, Palm (PALM) and its Treo
continue to struggle through extremely hard times.
RIM Rules Current Market, But Apple Is Gaining
RIM (42%; down 1-pt) maintains its towering lead in current
smart phone market share, even as number two Palm (16%;
down 2-pts) continues its two year losing streak. This was
the seventh-consecutive ChangeWave survey in which Palm's
market share has dropped.
Now within striking distance of Palm, the Apple iPhone (9%)
continues to score exceptional growth in the smart phone
market. Customer satisfaction ratings point out why. Smart
Phone Reviews
If customer satisfaction is a good indicator of future
growth, Apple occupies the sweet spot. An extraordinary
four-in-five iPhone owners (79%) report they're Very
Satisfied with their iPhone ' a significant lead over
number two RIM (54%) and far ahead of all other major
manufacturers.
We note that Palm (22%) again ranks at the bottom in terms
of customer satisfaction.
Going Forward: iPhone Has Momentum Looking ahead, better
than one-in-three (35%) respondents planning to purchase a
smartphone in the next 90 days say they'll purchase an
Apple iPhone ' a 12-point leap since the previous survey in
January.
RIM (29%) comes in second ' down 3-points from previously,
while Palm (3%) looks set to take yet another big hit,
falling 5-points.
The Apple surge in planned buying is at least partially
attributable to the recent flurry of announcements
regarding the iPhone's Software Development Kit and its new
2.0 Operating System. A total of 10% of respondents say
this new development has made them More Likely to buy an
iPhone in the future.
Mobile OS - The Androids Are Coming?
We also asked respondents which mobile operating system
they'd like to have on the phone they plan on buying. As
expected, the consumer market is dominated by the popular
RIM and Apple smartphone operating systems.
Note that the Google Android OS isn't being offered yet to
the general public, and it's still too early to gauge its
full impact. However, the survey sheds initial light on the
smart phone market potential for the Android.
While just 2% of respondents say they're Very Likely to use
the Android operating system, another 15% say they're
Somewhat Likely.
"These numbers do show some consumer interest in the
Android Operating System," says Tobin Smith, founder of
ChangeWave Research and editor of ChangeWave Investing.
"But based on the ultra-competitive battle between RIM and
Apple, there's little likelihood of the Android gaining
traction on either one's OS. They're sucking up all the
oxygen in this market."
"The Android's potential niche appears to be with a handful
of second tier smart phone players like HTC," he added
Another Two-Way War - But Among Service Providers
Beyond the RIM vs. Apple battle there is another two-sided
war ' this time among cellular service providers ' with
Verizon (VZ) (31%; up 1-pt) maintaining a slim lead over
AT&T (T) (29%; up 1-pt) in current market share.
But over the next 90 days, AT&T (28%; up 3-pts) appears all
set to get a boost based on Apple's recent well received
announcements. As Apple planned buying increases, so does
AT&T's because of their exclusive carrier agreement with
Apple.
Going forward, Verizon (22%) registers a 1-pt uptick in
planned buying. Later this month, we will release a
follow-up ChangeWave report with additional insight on
consumer likes and dislikes for the major smart phone
manufacturers. You'll be able to access the report at the
link immediately below.
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For the latest ChangeWave news on technology trends and
companies, visit:
<a
href="http://blog.changewave.com">http://blog.changewave.com
</a>.
The ChangeWave research network is composed of 15,000
highly qualified business and technology professionals.
Members are surveyed on a range of topics, and the findings
are converted into quantitative and qualitative reports.
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